CG - Updated 7:45 AM:
Enough moisture continues to linger as the trough moves even slower out of the region. This will result is a stronger chance of scattered TS around the area.
First , the NWS synopsis:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
901 PM MDT Monday Sep 5 2011
Synopsis....a weak storm system will move across the area
tonight through Tuesday. Somewhat drier conditions are expected
for the middle of the week before moisture increases again
Thursday through Saturday.
Tuesday morning is likely to have lingering mid level moisture with scattered showers across N Utah. By late morning this feature should move far enough to the east and allow drier air to flow in from the north. A dry northerly flow after a slow moving trough can sometimes be a nice break from the monsoonal southerly flows for this time of year. With enough moisture lingering behind the wave, a potential for scattered TS exists but should stay at or behind the Wasatch crest. Earlier this week models were predicting an easterly wind to follow behind this feature, but a N wind appears to be on tap.
Easterly winds are likely by Wed morning and may persist through Thursday, when more moisture is expected to arrive. However, the certainty of this moisture is unclear at best right now.
GFS and NAM resolve different solutions for the soaring potential, so the below is an average of the two.
Current Surface Winds
East canyon outflow wind down Provo canyon and SLC canyons. Winds at 10,000 ridge lines are light and variable, as are all valleys around the area.
Winds 12 PM
| Height | Direction | Speed | Notes as the day evolves |
| Surface | LV / N | 3 mph | N 7-10 mph |
| 9000 ft | NNW | 3-5 mph | Shifting N 6-8 mph later in the day |
| 12000 ft | N | 10 mph | Shifting NNE 10-14 mph later in the day |
| 15000 ft | NNW | 12-15 mph | Shifting NNE 15-20 mph later in the day |
| 18000 ft | N | 12-17 mph | Shifting NNE 14-18 mph later in the day |
Lift Potential & Clouds
Mid level clouds will persist through the morning and give way to sunnier skies early afternoon. Lift is significantly diminished in post frontal conditions along the Wasatch, with lift tops around 12K over the high peaks and valleys to be 8k or lower. The GFS predicts lift tops to be 2k higher overall. Cloud base is likely to be around 12k ft.
Over Development & Precip
Is is possible for light scattered showers to linger over the area in the morning. This should gradually stop as drier air moves in. Over development is still likely to the east of SLC and east central UT. Cloud cover may inhibit large convective cells from forming, but with temps dropping aloft and a forecasted high of 86 F tomorrow, we could see a few cells in the area.
XC Skies 3 day Forecast for Provo Mountain area.
These are GFS plots which typically show conditions to be better than experienced in post frontal conditions along the Wasatch, so don't get too excited yet :)
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