Weather outlook for Sept 8

The general weather outlook for September 8th around SLC.

Jupiter or Inspo today? Hard to say. We'll keep our finger on this over the next 2 hours...

First , the NWS synopsis:

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah 
330 am MDT Thursday Sep 8 2011 

Synopsis....a weak upper level system will push into the eastern 
Great Basin today. This will allow moisture to gradually increase 
across the region through the upcoming weekend.

Moisture starting to surge northward through Utah starting today and into the weekend as noted above. The funny thing is that there needs to be a southerly flow to transport this into our area, but winds aloft will likely remain from E to NE to light and variable. There is, however, enough moisture still around to trigger from TS in the area. The 10% chance of precip has that part covered, just as it did yesterday.

Current Surface Winds

BIG drainage event from east to west going on today, due to pressure gradient across the wasatch. This means 30+ mph flow out of canyons (Provo, SLC) and even smaller canyons like the Cottonwoods. As noted yesterday: this makes it tough to fly Inspo early. The canyon flow needs to back off before conditions are favorable for consistent and safe soaring around Provo.

Winds aloft forecasts are all over, so I won't place details here. The main message is they will be light. All under 7mph up through 15k ft. The question is, "What direction will it settle into?" With the pressure gradient from east/west is it likely the entire flow will be NE from 4-7mph. This is not good for Jupiter. If it's light and variable , as the GFS says, then it *could* be good, but *could* often ends up with a big disappointment and wasted day.

Gotta keep an eye on surface flow this morning in order to make the site call.

Winds 12 PM

Height	Direction	Speed	Notes as the day evolves
Surface
9000 ft
12000 ft
15000 ft
18000 ft

Lift Potential & Clouds

Sunny early in the day, then clouds over peaks and other favorable locations. Clouds could be deep, but few are expected to "drop out". Top of lift 13-14k at best near launch. Maybe 14-15k deeper east. Cold just like yesterday.

Over Development & Precip

A 10% chance of TS with some deep convective clouds in the area. Some may produce precipitation, but most should be fairly benign. High clouds are likely to push into the area, but thickness it unknown at this point. Expect to see some bands cirrus at times.

XC Skies 3 day Forecast for Provo Mountain area.

These are GFS plots which typically show conditions to be better than experienced in post frontal conditions along the Wasatch, so don't get too excited yet :)