Weather outlook for Sept 5

The general weather outlook for September 5th around SLC.

First , the NWS synopsis for today:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
245 am MDT Monday Sep 5 2011

Synopsis...moisture will return to Utah early this week. A weak
storm system will move across the area tonight and then move east of
the area Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected during the middle week.

As noted, a surge of moisture will push into Utah today with a chance of precip. Although a 30% chance of precip is noted by some agencies, the convection will likely remain scattered and not widespread. There is also considerably less moisture in the upper levels to trigger large TS development, so heavy rain may not be a factor for N Utah.

The day will progressively see overcast skies starting from the SW moving NE and into southern WY. This mid level cloud layer will be thick and suppress daytime heating, more than likely. As of 7:30 this morning there are thick clouds over SLC dropping "out" as they become saturated. This sign indicates more moisture is already here than forecasts state.

Winds are also a concern for late afternoon due to a strengthening southerly surface slow in from of the trough which is expected to move through later tonight.

Tomorrow we'll be under a north flow after the cold front moves through later tonight.

Current Surface Winds

Winds at Jupiter launch have already seen 10 mph with gusts to 20 this morning. Winds in the valley are light and variable as expected, with strong outflow from Provo canyon and Parleys in SLC (30mph), which is also expected.

Winds 12 PM

Height	Direction	Speed	Notes as the day evolves
Surface	SW	6-9	10-15 gusting to 20 mph S
9000 ft	S	5-9	Shifting SW 10-13 mph later in the day
12000 ft	S	8-12 mph	Shifting SW 12-15 mph later in the day
15000 ft	SSW	10-12 mph	Shifting SW 15-20 mph later in the day
18000 ft	SSW	10-14 mph	Shifting SSW 15-20 mph later in the day

Lift Potential & Clouds

Same as yesterday: Top of lift mid day over the peaks near the Wasatch will likely see 14-15k feet with cloudbase slightly higher. Southern WY and Uintas expect 18k feet. Book cliffs and the San Pete range will see 15k feet or more. Shallow cumulus clouds are expected to be mainly over the higher terrain and peaks, with little over or around mountain valleys.

Towering cumulus are likely by mid day (2pm and on), and may produce gusty and erratic winds. The majority of moisture is likely to reach the area later this evening.

Wide spread mid level clouds will cover the area for most of the day.


Over Development & Precip

Norhtern Utah will over develop later today, which S UT and SE Utah will see over development much earlier in the day, along with more moisture/precip reaching the ground. This is not in our area. The timing of the OD is uncertain at the moment. More cloud/.moisture is already evident in the SLC area and some mid level clouds are already falling out. This is typical for the area, but tells signs of a more saturated mid level than expected.

XC Skies 3 day Forecast for Park City area.