Weather review for Sept 10

Widespread overdevelopment by 1 pm. First the backside of Inspo went off, then Evanston, and then Strawberry. After that, each cell closed in on the Wasatch front and Jupiter.

There was no escape and a task was clearly impossible to call.

The awards were given out shortly after back at HQ and the comp ended on a good note overall, with 4 solid days of flying in somewhat atypical conditions for the area.

More closing thoughts on the next post.


Weather outlook for Sept 10

The general weather outlook for September 10th around SLC.

First, a word from your sponsor: thanks for supporting XC Skies. Without your contributions, ideas, and enthusiasm to create a better and more useful tool for our pilot community, this project would have collapsed in on itself the first season.

Second , the NWS synopsis:
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
355 am MDT Sat Sep 10 2011

Synopsis....upper level low over Southern California will remain
nearly stationary through the weekend. A resultant southerly flow
will continue to spread moisture northward through the region.

Today is a tough love kind of day. We're trapped in a deep moisture surge with the low to our SW stalled out a bit today. This will allow more moisture to pump into the region instead of cutting off the firehose from the south. N Utah is expected to see more precip events and strong TS starting early afternoon. The Uintas will likely overdevelop first, and with the east winds overhead, these storms will drift into the SLC valleys.

Let's dissect this below.

Current Surface Winds
Canyon drainage flow is present, but not as widespread as yesterday. The flows will still top 30mph this morning and back off just as they have by early afternoon.

Winds 12 PM
Height Direction SpeedNotes as the day evolves
Surface N S E W

9000 ft ESE
7-10 mph
becoming a little lighter
12000 ft SE
12 mph
then 10-13mph later in the day
15000 ft SE
17-20 mph
14-17 mph later in the day
18000 ft SE
22 mph

Lift Potential & Clouds

High and some mid level clouds will continue to spread across the region. Sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy later in the day. Cloud base around 13k with top of lift the same. Valleys to the east for SLC will see top of lift and cloud base around 14-16k. Will deep convection lined up for later today, height of base will dance around a bit.

Over Development & Precip

NWS states 30% chance of TS, which translates to nearly a 100% certainty we'll see large TS in the area. Most storms will be accompanied with rain and strong gusty winds later in the day.

XC Skies 3 day Forecast for Provo Mountain area.